If, before the debate, I told you...

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Monday October 08, 2012 · 3:18 PM PDT

2012/10/08 · 15:18

If, before the debate, I told you that Rasmussen had the race tied (today's Rasmussen tracking, all post-debate), would you panic? No, you'd interpret that as Obama being ahead.

benfalloon

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Wednesday September 10, 2008 · 9:28 AM PDT

2008/09/10 · 09:28

Sure, on this website, we all understand the politically calculated, 'phony outrage' of McCain/Palin. But many voters are not familiar with the 'lipstick on a pig' quip that is commonly used in Washington. By default, they are associating Obama's comment with Palin, whose speech is the only other time they've heard the expression. Some undecided voters are going to be offended, and that is a major problem.

Frankly, I do not understand how Obama or his speechwriters, knowing that the McCain campaign is ready to pounce at any time with charges of sexism, could provide such an obvious opening for the opposition, or the media ready to carry the McCain/Palin narrative. In any event, what's done is done. So what to do?

benfalloon

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Thursday May 08, 2008 · 12:06 PM PDT

2008/05/08 · 12:06

I'm worried that too many Obama supporters are getting complacent. Yes, Obama will certainly win a majority of pledged delegates, and it is extraordinarily unlikely that Hillary can win over enough superdelegates to secure the nomination. But from everything we know about Hillary, she is going to fight on, regardless of whether Obama is damaged in the process.

benfalloon

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Wednesday March 12, 2008 · 12:01 PM PDT

2008/03/12 · 12:01

As an Obama supporter, it's not an easy thing to say, but I'm willing to give Hillary until June, after the end of the primary season, to make her case for the nomination. As discussed below, I believe that, notwithstanding the rhetoric of her campaign, Hillary is angling to win the 'popular vote,' has a chance of doing so, and ought to be given the opportunity to make her case about the significance, if any, of a 'popular vote' win.

As we all know, either candidate will need the votes of superdelegates to clinch the nomination, and based upon the structure of the current nominating process, the party clearly contemplates a role for the superdelegates apart from that of the pledged delegates in determining who should be the nominee.

benfalloon

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Friday November 03, 2006 · 11:06 AM PST

2006/11/03 · 11:06

I was interested in seeing which races Kos readers most want to win on Tuesday. I rank my top five picks below.

As you can see, my top five are all Senate races. This is partly because control of the Senate appears to be too close to call and every pickup counts. Also important is the fact, I believe, that the higher national profile of Senators places them in a better position than most Congressmen, Governors, and local politicians to be a constructive voice of opposition to W.

My top five, in order, are as follows: Read More

Get over it...we lost FL and OH

benfalloon

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Thursday November 18, 2004 · 11:15 AM PST

2004/11/18 · 11:15

It's time to get over it. We lost FL and OH. Without a doubt there were irregularities and other matters which would likely tilt some votes are way. Regardless, the outcomes in FL and OH make a little more sense when placed in a national context. Read More

Who can best unite the party?

benfalloon

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Monday January 26, 2004 · 9:40 PM PST

2004/01/26 · 21:40

We talk a lot about who is our favorite candidate. What we sometimes forget to talk about, I think, is which candidate can best unite the Democratic party.

For instance, it seems that, to varying degrees, a number of Democrats have a strong distaste for Dean, Kerry, Lieberman, Kucinich or Sharpton. On the other hand, while Edwards and Clark have fewer voters that rank them as a first choice (than Kerry or Dean), they don't seem to have as many vocal detractors.

Something to consider.

Electability Revisited

benfalloon

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Friday January 23, 2004 · 3:34 PM PST

2004/01/23 · 15:34

Okay Deaniacs, let's put aside our pre-Iowa arguments about Dean's electability. Let's also put aside arguments about whether Dean's behavior in his concession speech was appropriate.

The fact of the matter is that Dean has been PORTRAYED as an angry, nutty candidate. Moreover, voters are believing it to be true, as is clearly reflected in recent polling.

I suppose it's possible, albeit unlikely, that Dean could make a comeback and win a plurarility of the vote. But do we really want a candidate whose first major introduction to the wider world of voters has become the national joke of the week?

It's time to revisit the electability argument. We may not agree about whether the Dean speech SHOULD matter, but it clearly does.

Dean is very damaged goods. We need to win this fall, and Dean doesn't give us a chance.

Dean Fails to Bring New Voters

benfalloon

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Tuesday January 20, 2004 · 3:21 AM PST

2004/01/20 · 03:21

I've noticed that many Deaniacs argue that Dean is more electable than other candidates because he brings new voters to the party. The polls in Iowa, however, seem to indicate that most of these "new voters" never showed up.

If these new voters aren't excited enough about Dean in the places that know him best, I think it's time to rethink the argument on Dean's general election electability.

Deaniacs Are In Denial

benfalloon

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Friday January 16, 2004 · 2:29 PM PST

2004/01/16 · 14:29

Deaniacs are angry about the state of politics, and I appreciate that. What they don't seem to understand is that most of America is not angry at Bush. Bush consistently polls very high on his personal qualities, and almost always polls a (slim) majority of voters approving of his job performance.

Americans don't want an angry candidate. They want someone who will intelligently and empathetically articulate alternatives to Bush policies.

Dean doesn't get this and many Deaniacs on this website don't get this. This is why Dean will lose in the general. If Dean brings in 1 million new liberal voters, it's all for naught when he loses 2 million moderates in the process.

Dean brings new voters but loses the old ones

benfalloon

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Thursday January 15, 2004 · 1:41 AM PST

2004/01/15 · 01:41

We often hear how nominating Dean would boost the Democrats' chances by bringing in new voters. What is becoming increasingly apparent to me though is that, in the process, Dean will lose a substantial number of "old voters" that another nominee would otherwise carry.

What Deaniacs fail to accept is that a majority of Americans like Bush personally, and while they may disagree with him on policy, they certainly don't embrace the anger of the Deaniac left. The Dean campaign's angry, divisive rhetoric is all wrong, stylistically.

In my opinion, the number of potential Democratic votes Dean loses for stylistic reasons would substantially exceed the number of new voters he bring in.

Dean accepted fees, gifts from special interests as governor

benfalloon

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Friday January 09, 2004 · 6:16 PM PST

2004/01/09 · 18:16

While not illegal, more principled governors don't do this. His red-faced rhetoric notwithstanding, it's just more evidence that Dean is very much politics-as-usual.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/news/archive/2004/01/09/politics1546EST0686.DTL

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If, before the debate, I told you...

Obama Hogtied in the Pig Pen - We Need You, Hillary

Don't Be Fooled...Hillary is NOT getting out without a fight

Ok Hillary, You Can Have Until June, But...

The Races I Most Want to Win in 2006

Get over it...we lost FL and OH

Who can best unite the party?

Electability Revisited

Dean Fails to Bring New Voters

Deaniacs Are In Denial

Dean brings new voters but loses the old ones

Dean accepted fees, gifts from special interests as governor